JAMAICA’S WIKILEAKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000230 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KCRM PINR JM
SUBJECT: "A TWO-HORSE RACE":  PHILLIPS AIDE HANDICAPS 
FEBRUARY 25 INTERNAL PNP ELECTION TO SUCCEED PM PATTERSON 

REF: 05 KINGSTON 458 

Classified By: Ambassador Brenda LaGrange Johnson.  Reasons 1.4(b) and 
(d). 

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Summary 
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¶1. (C) On January 30, a close confidant of National Security 
Minister Peter Phillips discussed the campaigns of Phillips, 
Local Government, Community and Sport Minister Portia Simpson 
Miller, Finance Minister Omar Davies, and former Water and 
Housing Minister Karl Blythe to succeed P.J. Patterson as 
party leader and prime minister.  With the internal PNP 
election set for February 25, our contact was confident that 
Phillips has sewn up sufficient backing among the 4000 voting 
PNP delegates, and locked in the support of a majority of the 
PNP's parliamentary group.  He echoed frequent criticisms of 
Simpson Miller that she is ill-prepared to be prime minister, 
faulted Davies for running his campaign badly, and dismissed 
Blythe as standing no chance.  Our contact also judged it 
unlikely that significant violence would erupt surrounding 
the February 25 election, and he expressed concern at several 
unsavory political operatives with Simpson Miller's campaign. 
 Many PNP-ers fault Patterson for not having sewn up the 
succession issue more cleanly and quietly.  End Summary. 

¶2. (C) On January 30, XXXXXXXXXXXX (protect), a senior aide 
to, and confidant of, National Security Minister Peter 
Phillips, discussed with DCM and P/ECouns the state of play 
leading up to the February 25 Peoples National Party (PNP) 
internal election.  The PNP election is being held to 
determine which of four senior PNP officials -- Phillips; 
Minister of Local Government, Community and Sport Portia 
Simpson Miller; Finance Minister Omar Davies; or former PNP 
minister Karl Blythe -- will succeed P.J. Patterson as party 
president and as prime minister. 

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Phillips Confident of Victory 
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¶3. (C) Noting that the winning candidate need only secure a 
plurality among approximately 4000 PNP delegates authorized 
to vote on February 25, XXXXXXXXXXXX said that after more than 
two years of nationwide campaigning and quiet, grassroots political organizational work, Phillips has received firm 
commitments of support from perhaps 1500 delegates - far 
more, he maintained, than any of the other candidates.  He 
readily acknowledged that Simpson Miller enjoys nationwide 
personal popularity far in excess of Phillips or the other 
candidates, but emphasized that February 25 will be a contest 
among voting PNP delegates only, while adding that Phillips 
enjoys the backing of a majority of PNP Members of 
Parliament.  In a sly aside, XXXXXXXXXXXX observed that Phillips 
"believes he has the support of the U.S. Embassy."  DCM 
agreed that we have worked closely with Phillips on security 
and law enforcement issues, and appreciated both the 
Minister's pragmatism and his willingness to cooperate in 
matters of mutual concern.  DCM added, however, that we have 
also worked well - if less closely given their respective 
current portfolios - with Simpson Miller and Davies. 

¶4. (C) In XXXXXXXXXXXX's estimation, Phillips and Portia Simpson 
Miller are the only viable candidates.  "It's a two-horse 
race," he enthused.  Like many of her critics, XXXXXXXXXXXX 
opined that Simpson Miller lacks the substance to be prime 
minister.  (Note:  On February 2, Simpson Miller reportedly 
pulled out of a four-way, nationally televised debate between 
the four PNP candidates, citing previous commitments and 
uncertainties about the firmness of the date.  Not 
surprisingly, her critics were quick to point to her 
withdrawal as evidence that Simpson Miller was afraid to risk 
facing her opponents in such a forum.  End note.) 
Furthermore, said XXXXXXXXXXXX, key PNP leaders and supporters 
would refuse to back Simpson Miller even if she were to 
prevail among the delegates.  He listed Foreign Minister K.D. 
Knight, who has declared his support for Phillips and who 
clashed memorably and profanely with Simpson Miller in 
Parliament in 2005, as particularly opposed to Simpson 
Miller, with the influential Education Minister, Sharon 
Hay-Webster, similarly disposed.  Reminded that Simpson 
Miller is easily the most popular politician of either party 
with the masses, XXXXXXXXXXXX, without disputing the point, 
replied that "they don't necessarily want to see one of their 
own up there" as prime minister. 

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Corruption Concerns 
------------------- 

¶5. (C) Perhaps for effect, XXXXXXXXXXXX professed concern about 
support for Simpson Miller's campaign from notably 
unscrupulous figures such as Paul Burke, a 1970's-era 
radical-turned-businessman and backroom PNP operative. 
XXXXXXXXXXXX described Burke as being politically savvy and 
intellectually gifted, and therefore of great use to Simpson 
Miller's campaign.  At the same time, he said, given Burke's 
past shady dealings and associations, Burke had attached 
himself to Simpson Miller's campaign because he is able to 
exercise greater influence with her, and because he hopes to 
benefit from a Simpson Miller victory.  Minister of Commerce, 
Science, Technology, and Energy Phillip Paulwell is another 
PNP "politician with a past" who is backing Simpson Miller, 
said XXXXXXXXXXXX.  (Note:  Paulwell, reportedly a longtime 
associate of and close collaborator with Burke, was a rising 
political star until 2001, when he approved a USD 4 million 
loan to a private telecom company known to be in financial 
trouble, and which subsequently collapsed.  End note.) 

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Davies and Blythe:  XXXXXXXXXXXX's Also-Rans 
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¶6. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX was entirely dismissive of Karl Blythe's 
low-profile campaign, saying that Phillips had won over key 
delegates from under Blythe's nose, in Blythe's own home 
constituency. He characterized Blythe as erratic and 
unpredictable, and observed that he seemed to be in the race 
"because of ego."  (Note:  Blythe was forced to resign as 
Water and Housing Minister in 2002 after he was found to have 
acted improperly in supervising a low-income housing grant 
program.  End note.)  Though more respectful of Finance 
Minister Omar Davies and his "Campaign for Prosperity", 
XXXXXXXXXXXX said that Davies has run his campaign badly thus 
far, causing private sector donors to lose faith and reduce 
considerably their funding for his effort.  According to 
XXXXXXXXXXXX, Patterson persuaded Davies to enter the race to 
provide a more promising (and palatable) alternative than 
Blythe to Phillips and Simpson Miller, and because Patterson 
harbors long-standing grudges against both Phillips and 
Simpson Miller.  Patterson, he explained, has never forgotten 
that it was Phillips who conveyed then-Prime Minister Michael 
Manley's 1991 request for Patterson's resignation as Finance 
Minister after Patterson was found to have improperly waived 
fuel import duties for a PNP crony who was also the local 
manager for a multinational petroleum company.  As for 
Simpson Miller, she earned Patterson's ire by daring to run 
(unsuccessfully, as it turned out) against him to succeed 
Manley in 1992, and by frequently missing or arriving late to 
Cabinet meetings over the years, which Patterson viewed as a 
lack of respect for his authority. 

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PNP:  Unity or Internecine Violence? 
------------------------------------ 

¶7. (C) Asked to assess prospects for electoral violence 
(among supporters of the various PNP candidates) around the 
February 25 election date, XXXXXXXXXXXX conceded the possibility 
of localized incidents.  He downplayed the likelihood of 
widespread violence, however, saying that he expected the 
party to unite - however grudgingly - behind the winner. 
Patterson has publicly declared his intention to turn over 
the reins to a successor by April.  Publicly and behind the 
scenes, he will do everything he can to resolve any disputes 
among the contenders or between the factions to preserve 
party unity for the next elections, which are due by October 
¶2007.  Moreover, XXXXXXXXXXXX continued, most PNP supporters also understand that, regardless of who succeeds Patterson in 
February, that individual will need the backing of a unified 
party to prevail over the JLP's Bruce Golding in the general 
election.  Given any government's control of resources, he 
said, PNP loyalists can be expected to circle wagons behind 
their party's leader rather than face the prospect of being 
voted out of office. 

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Comment 
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¶8. (C) We had the distinct impression that XXXXXXXXXXXX's 
willingness to discuss the campaign suited his boss. 
Notwithstanding his close affiliation with Phillips, however, 
XXXXXXXXXXXX's reflections offer useful insights into the 
internal PNP maneuvering to succeed Patterson.  XXXXXXXXXXXX's 
assessment that Phillips and Simpson Miller are the two most 

likely victors on February 25 tracks with what we are hearing 
elsewhere, publicly and privately.  That said, we note that 
Blythe has already surprised most observers when, in February 
2005 (Ref B), he easily outpolled Simpson Miller and Phillips 
in the race for one of the four PNP vice-presidencies.  For 
his part, Davies is both respected and reviled for, 
respectively, his adroit handling of the GOJ's tricky 
financial situation, and for whatever economic discomfort 
Jamaicans attribute to his policies.  The Finance Minister's 
Achilles heel in the race might also be the perception among 
some in his party (including delegates) that, unlike Phillips 
and Simpson Miller, he has not sufficiently paid his dues by 
moving through a succession of PNP positions over the years. 
Jamaican politics are not for the faint-hearted or for the 
pure, and all four candidates doubtless have their skeletons. 
 That said, the involvement of Paul Burke, Danhai Williams, 
Kenneth "Skeng Don" Black, and their ilk with the Simpson 
Miller campaign - or indeed any other - is cause for some 
concern. 

¶9. (C) Comment (cont'd):  The JLP, with its long history of 
fractiousness, underwent a particularly messy and very public 
leadership succession struggle in 2004-2005, while the PNP 
has always prided itself on its ability to resolve its 
differences internally.  After 14 years in office, Patterson 
is stepping down having become Jamaica's most successful 
politician by winning the past four general elections. 
Still, his refusal or failure to sew up the succession issue 
more cleanly has already led to what some party faithful 
consider an unseemly battle, with four prominent PNP 
candidates publicly enumerating each others' faults and 
failures before a national audience.  XXXXXXXXXXXX may well be 
correct in predicting that PNP's need for unity will prevail 
over the possibility of violence in the run-up to, or 
following, the February 25 party election.  We certainly hope 
so, as PNP supporters from whichever camp presumably would 
not want to give undecided voters reason to prefer the PNP in 
the general elections, which must be held by October 2007. 
Given what is at stake later this month, however - leadership 
of the PNP and the country leading into general elections, 
and with the PNP having formed the government since 1989 - 
the possibility that one or another faction's supporters will 
be dissatisfied with the outcome, and willing to cause 
trouble, cannot be dismissed. 

¶10.  (SBU) Further developments in the PNP succession saga 
will unfold in the coming days.  All four PNP candidates had 
agreed to square off in a one-off, nationally televised 
debate on February 7, which would have forced them more 
clearly to define themselves vis-a-vis their opponents. 
Simpson Miller's "unavailability", if true, could reasonably 
be interpreted as evidence that she does not wish to risk 
embarrassment, but organizational questions surrounding the 
event (unrelated to her participation) have also cast doubt 
as to whether the debate will come off.  Either way, one or 
more of the weaker candidates may well withdraw at some point 
before February 25 after negotiating with one of the stronger 
camps to support their candidate...for a price.